"If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle." -Sun Tzu (The Art of War)
On Tuesday, most media outlets reported on the 30 page "worldwide threat assessment" submitted to Congress by US Intel. There was lots of talk about a "weakened Al-Qaeda" and a "more dangerous Iran". It's seemed like everyone was making a fairly big deal over the Iranian assessment, so I read the report to see what all what all the excitement was about. Here's my two cents on the assessment and the threat from Iran...
The assessment itself is a general summary of threats worldwide, so it's pretty lite on specifics and details. But the report does point out the recent failed Saudi Ambassador assassination plot, it goes into some details about Iran's known nuclear capabilities, and also predicts increased belligerency coming from Tehran. Overall, the tenor of the commentary comes across a bit too optimistic. And the assessment appears to underestimate Iran's capabilities, while it overestimates the regime's level of sanity.
News reports of continued Iranian advancements in their missile and nuclear programs, a rash of publicly issued threats from the regime, and regular reports of foiled attacks (both inside and outside of the US) make it abundantly clear. Iran is angry, very serious about doing harm, hell-bent on getting nukes, and a danger to the safety and stability of pretty much the whole world.
Recent Threats
The "threats" above represent merely a sampling of the many promises of mayhem, death and destruction which have come from Iran recently. The Iranians are flailing around in fits of rage, threatening anybody and everybody who will listen. However, the Iranian regime isn't just flailing around issuing empty threats. The string of thwarted attacks makes it clear that they are serious.
Thwarted Attacks
As sanctions, assassinations, and additional measures continue to increase pressure on the Iranian government, the Mullahs, Ahmadinejad, and the rest of the regime will become even more unhinged...
Just how unhinged are they already?
Well, judging by the "plots" they've accused the US and Israel of taking part in, "out of their damn minds" is an understatement.
Just how unhinged are they already?
Well, judging by the "plots" they've accused the US and Israel of taking part in, "out of their damn minds" is an understatement.
"Zio-American Plots"
Paranoid delusions of Barbie doll infiltration and Harry Potter plots are only the beginning of the insanity in Iran. Their apocalyptic beliefs about the coming of an infidel-annihilating Muslim messiah, and the part they are to play in the "return", makes any belief in a "zionist" conspiracy behind Harry Potter seem relatively rational.
Mahdi Madness - 12th Imam Psychosis
Note: This video has a lot of subtitles. You may want to watch it on YouTube here for easier reading.
Nukes & War
Iran might play games with nuclear "negotiations". From time to time, they may even act the part of "truly committed". However, there can never be any legitimate hope for a peaceful end to a confrontation with people who see zionist-monsters in every closest, American spies under every bed, and believe that a nuclear holocaust will bring forth some Imam from hiding who disappeared centuries ago.
The reality of the situation is, so long as crazies like the Mullahs and Ahmadinejad are running the show, Iran will continue to seek to obtain nuclear weapons. And an Iran with nukes is a nightmare situation. There is absolutely no reason what-so-ever to believe anything other than Iran will use nuclear weapons, if they can get them. At minimum, they will hold the world hostage. Worst case, they will start using them to try to wake up Mahdi.
The Obummer administration is saying Iran will not be allowed to have nukes, and the Republican nominee will hold similar views on the subject (assuming one of the front-runners gets the nod and nothing crazy happens). The writing is all over the wall. In the coming weeks, months, and years Iran will continue their pursuit of military nuclear capabilities, and America (along with Israel, the EU, and others) will continue to try and stop them.
Iran is dangerously close to having nukes as it is, so every move made by America and others will be in an effort to apply serious pressure on Iran. Inevitability, the application of increasing pressure, and any future attack by America or Israel, will lead the crazies in Iran to lash out more frequently and increasingly target the homeland.
As things plays out, the greatest threats against the homeland will come from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard (IRG) and Hezbollah (Iran's terror proxy). The attempted assassination of the Saudi Ambassador has been linked to the Gaurd's Quds Force, indicating they are connected operationally to sympathetic Muslims in the country. For Hezbollah's part, besides direct support from individuals in America, they are all over Latin America, including many places in Mexico, and their cells benefit from the experience of their allies in the narco cartels.
The reality of the situation is, so long as crazies like the Mullahs and Ahmadinejad are running the show, Iran will continue to seek to obtain nuclear weapons. And an Iran with nukes is a nightmare situation. There is absolutely no reason what-so-ever to believe anything other than Iran will use nuclear weapons, if they can get them. At minimum, they will hold the world hostage. Worst case, they will start using them to try to wake up Mahdi.
The Obummer administration is saying Iran will not be allowed to have nukes, and the Republican nominee will hold similar views on the subject (assuming one of the front-runners gets the nod and nothing crazy happens). The writing is all over the wall. In the coming weeks, months, and years Iran will continue their pursuit of military nuclear capabilities, and America (along with Israel, the EU, and others) will continue to try and stop them.
Iran is dangerously close to having nukes as it is, so every move made by America and others will be in an effort to apply serious pressure on Iran. Inevitability, the application of increasing pressure, and any future attack by America or Israel, will lead the crazies in Iran to lash out more frequently and increasingly target the homeland.
As things plays out, the greatest threats against the homeland will come from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard (IRG) and Hezbollah (Iran's terror proxy). The attempted assassination of the Saudi Ambassador has been linked to the Gaurd's Quds Force, indicating they are connected operationally to sympathetic Muslims in the country. For Hezbollah's part, besides direct support from individuals in America, they are all over Latin America, including many places in Mexico, and their cells benefit from the experience of their allies in the narco cartels.
Hezbollah
Bottom Line on Iran
I'm quite certain people are tired of war, but I simply don't see anyway that we are going to totally avoid the use of the military. I think there are legitimate options for minimizing force, but I do not believe sanctions aren't likely to collapse the regime, and I don't think the administration is very hopeful either. I'm sure the generals are drawing up all sorts of different plans to deal with the situation by force, likely including various configurations partial military invasion, special-ops campaigns, Iranian opposition support, exploitation of divisions in the Iranian regime, and targeted air strikes of the Iranian nuclear facilities that our bombs can destroy (we can't get them all yet).
In the end, it may not be America who attacks first. Israel is understandably more anxious about Iran, being they are in such close proximity. The Israelis may tire of waiting for Obummer, and do what they feel needs to be done. But, whether it's Israel that jumps out first, or America takes the lead, unfortunately another military engagement, and progressive increases in the risk of terror attacks at home, is almost certainly on the horizon.
There's much more to be said about Iran. But, I'll leave it at that for now, and save it for another post.
In the end, it may not be America who attacks first. Israel is understandably more anxious about Iran, being they are in such close proximity. The Israelis may tire of waiting for Obummer, and do what they feel needs to be done. But, whether it's Israel that jumps out first, or America takes the lead, unfortunately another military engagement, and progressive increases in the risk of terror attacks at home, is almost certainly on the horizon.
There's much more to be said about Iran. But, I'll leave it at that for now, and save it for another post.
Apologies to Fatwa readers for nearly a month of no new blog posts. What started weeks ago as a purposeful reallocation of my time (to study Iran) mutated into a wicked case of what I'm guessing is writer's block, the debilitating effects of which I just overcame in writing this very post.
The short story of what happened is, about a month ago, I set aside most of my free time and dedicated it to researching Iran and the various issues more in depth. Once the research was complete, for some unknown reason, I was unable to produce a post when I sat down to write the first time. The day after the failed first attempt, I tried again, but was no more successful than the day before.
I don't know how it happened (no, Muslims, it's was not the work of allah). However, I do know that I've spent weeks consumed in a productivity crippling mini psychological crisis. I've spent hours and hours staring at my computer screen, trying with every fiber of my being to perform the simple act of writing a post, and up until this post, I had not managed a single typed sentence for all the time wasted. The nightmarish cycle of painfully laboring over the construction of a sentence, only to immediately throw it out upon completion, was the most maddening exercise in frustration and futility. I hope it NEVER happens again.
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